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Did Target Mislead on Earnings Miss?

Key Points from cnbc.com:

Target executives cited the recent U.S. ports strike and need to bring goods ahead of it as a factor in its big earnings miss on Thursday, due to elevated freight costs and overly stocked stores.

Trade data reviewed by CNBC shows Target imported a level of goods this year across key months in advance of the strike that was similar to 2023′s peak shipping season, essentially flat to down in the overall number of cargo containers.

The data also shows that the value of goods Target imported was higher than at Walmart by $1.2 billion, reinforcing the real problem for the retailer: it missed on its forecast for consumer demand and price-point sensitivity.

 

So what did hurt Target compared to last year?

It is trying to be a higher end retailer than Walmart with products that consumers may buy or leave on the shelf depending on how economically stressed their consumer is. Target’s foot traffic has continued to increase but their customers are not jumping at the products on the shelf. I can’t get a good figure on Target’s ad spend for 2024 but in 2023 they spent $1.4 billion which going back 14 years, that tends to be what they consistently spend on advertisements. Walmart which has always boasted a “no sales” strategy but boast regular pricing spends around $3.4 billion on ads. Target does run sales. Target does issue rainchecks on sale items it does not have in stock so long as they are not clearance, price cut items, or so called everyday low price items. I can not find the number of rainchecks they have recently been issuing which would indicate inventory problems or potential customer dissatisfaction because of an item on sale not being in stock or the perception that there might be a switch and bait strategy going on where the customer comes in for an item on sale but ends up buying a similar but higher priced item.
Continue reading Did Target Mislead on Earnings Miss?

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Twitch, facing its own advertiser boycott is being sued by X for boycotting X

Elon Musk’s X suing Amazon-owned Twitch for not advertising on the platform

Musk’s social media site is suing a number of advertisers, alleging they colluded in violation of anti-trust laws to ‘illegally’ boycott the platform to do damage to a potential rival.

On Monday, Twitch was added to X’s ongoing lawsuit against brand members of the now-defunct Global Alliance of Responsible Media (GARM), as first reported by Business Insider. X claims in its lawsuit that members of GARM illegally conspired to boycott the platform formerly known as Twitter in late 2022, shortly after Musk acquired the company.

According to the lawsuit, X says that Twitch has not advertised on the platform in the U.S. since November 2022. As Business Insider reports, X cites a GARM document in its lawsuit that mentions an “executive endorsement” from Twitch regarding GARM’s brand safety standards.

X originally filed the lawsuit back in August. Since then, the World Federation of Advertisers (WFA) disbanded the coalition of advertisers known as GARM. In addition, X removed Unilever from the lawsuit after reaching an undisclosed agreement with the company.

Regardless of the closure of the GARM initiative, WFA says it intends to fight the allegations in court.

The Sherman Antitrust Act explicitly outlaws collusion, meaning any agreement or conspiracy between competing businesses to restrict trade or manipulate prices in a market, effectively prohibiting them from working together to stifle competition; this is considered a key element of the act’s purpose to promote fair market practices.

The last major instance of the Sherman Antitrust Act being used was in the 1980s, when the Department of Justice broke up AT&T, which held a monopoly on telephone services in the United States; this is considered one of the most recent significant applications of the Sherman Act. If Matt Gaetz becomes AG, his past rhetoric and stands indicate that he may very well bring back enforcement of the Sherman Act.

America’s Media is mostly controlled by 6 companies which is the primary reason the elite media went into overdrive to tank the appointment of Matt Gaetz to be AG; gossip and scandals aside.

It should be noted that Twitch has faced its own advertiser boycott because it stopped people from signing up to the platform from Israel and Palestine. The boycott has hurt some streamers a lot more than other streamers, though there has been some debate on whether the harm to streamers has come from the advertiser boycott or from tags that some streamers have used or the content within their streams. Twitch may have started shadow banning or throttling some streamers to try to prevent the advertiser boycott from growing though that is just supposition and may be unfounded.

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Hong Kong Stock’s Volatile Market Continues

Yet another Hong Kong stock lost most of its value in a sudden one-day drop. Some are concerned that the $5.2 trillion market has become a breeding ground for wild volatility. Then again, some are looking at the volatility as an opportunity to make fast profits.

Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems by Didier Sornette (Princeton Science Library) … If signed in you are awarded 2 SayTokens for clicking link (Note that I get commission for anything you put in shopping cart and purchase shortly after clicking this link. Thanks.)

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China First Capital Group, an investment company that focuses on financial and education services, plunged as much as 78% on Wednesday before trading was suspended. Virscend Education Co., which is partly owned by First Capital, also lost as much as 78% before the buyers jumped in and reduced its decline to around 33% lower. The moves wiped out a combined $1.2 billion in shareholder value.

ArtGo Holdings, a Chinese marble miner, saw its stock crash 98% in Hong Kong trading after MSCI decided not to add it to its any indexes. That plunge wiped out more than $5 billion in market cap for the company.
Continue reading Hong Kong Stock’s Volatile Market Continues

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Twitter UP On Good News – 4-23-2019

Twitter Stock Pre-market 36.70 +2.31 (6.72%)

The company said the number of daily users rose 11% to 134 million for the first quarter of 2019, thanks to both “organic growth as well as ongoing product improvements and marketing.”  Compare that to the 1.5 billion daily users that Facebook has.  But if you compare twitter numbers to Amazon or Walmart the twitter numbers are good and their ability to monetize those numbers are good.

Twitter is planning on replacing monthly user numbers with daily user numbers which is the number of users who actually view advertisements on twitter each day.

Does this 11% increase in users indicate that the twitter purge of users is coming to an end?  My account indicates that the purge is still ongoing but it may be slowing.  I am not sure.

The company posted profit of $190.8 million, or 25 cents per share, for the first quarter. After adjusting for one-time gains and costs, earnings came to 9 cents per share, short of Wall Street expectations. Analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research forecast earnings of 15 cents per share.

Revenue came in at $786.9 million in the period, slightly beating analyst forecasts of $774.9 million.

The twitter story and the story of other internet companies is basically the story of people who can longer get organic traffic to their websites, to their apps, to their eBooks, to the products they are trying to sell.  They have to advertise to be seen online.  That helps companies that are good at running ads.

Even twitter hints that part of their growth came from more effective marketing and was not strictly organic.  For people like me the need to run ads is the primary internet story right, and to be honest, I don’t like. 🙂  I stopped running ads in 2008 and I really do not want to start back doing it because I am so out of practice but I know what I need to do.  I just do not want to do it.

Notes:

Twitter was created in March 2006 by Jack Dorsey, Noah Glass, Biz Stone, and Evan Williams and launched in July of that year. The service rapidly gained worldwide popularity. In 2012, more than 100 million users posted 340 million tweets a day, and the service handled an average of 1.6 billion search queries per day. In 2013, it was one of the ten most-visited websites and has been described as “the SMS of the Internet”. As of 2018, Twitter had more than 321 million monthly active users.

Twitter ranks around 10 or 11 in traffic compared to other websites. It has held that position for a couple of years or more. It should be noted that yahoo still gets more traffic than twitter. One of the twitter’s metrics is that people spend only around 6 minutes per day on twitter. I would think the average twitter user spends more time on twitter than that but I don’t know.

 

 

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US trade deficit drops in February 2017

Trade

The deficit fell to $43.6 billion in February, 9.6 percent below January’s deficit of $48.2 billion, the Commerce Department reported. Exports rose a small 0.2 percent to $192.9 billion. Imports dropped 1.8 percent to $236.4 billion as the flow of Chinese goods dropped by $8.6 billion, led by a reduction cell phone imports.

The trade deficit with China slipped in February to $23 billion, 26.6 percent below the January total; but still too high. And the reduction may be technical due to the Chinese New Year and not part of a trend: YET.

The small rise in exports in February was led by U.S.-made autos and autos parts, which climbed 1.5 percent to the highest level since July 2014. Exports of petroleum products were up 8.6 percent. Those gains helped offset declines in exports of commercial airplanes, farm products and industrial engines.

The increase in exports of goods was driven by consumer goods which increased $.7 billion to $17.1 billion and military and other goods which increased $.5 billion to $4.9 billion. The decrease in imports of goods were driven by consumer goods which decreased $3.1 billion to $49.0 billion and automotive vehicles, parts and engines which decreased $2.6 billion to $29.1 billion. There was a services surplus for the month of $21.4 billion.

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Faraday Future To Build One Billion Dollar Electric Car Factory

See 11/28/2019 update at the bottom of this article.

The startup, Faraday Future, has around 400 employees.  It has hired executive talent from Tesla.

It was originally incorporated in California in May 2014 as LeTV ENV Inc., according to papers filed with the California Secretary of State. The address in Beijing is associated with Letv, a holding company founded by Chinese tech pioneer Jia Yueting.

Its current name, Faraday Future, takes its name from scientist Michael Faraday.  Michael Faraday was born  September 22, 1791 and died August 25, 1867.  He was born in Newington Butts, England.  Faraday was largely self educated.  Most schools in 18th Century England were run by the Church. True education was accomplished through apprenticeships.  At fourteen he became the apprentice to George Riebau, a local bookbinder and bookseller on Blandford Street in London. Unlike many people in England during this period, he had access to many books and became very well read.   BOOKS THEN, BOOKS/INTERNET NOW, ARE THE PATH TO TRUE LEARNING!!!

At the end of his apprenticeship he attended lectures and met English chemist Humphry Davy of the Royal Institution and Royal Society, and John Tatum, founder of the City Philosophical Society. Faraday was not considered a gentleman. When Davy set out on a long tour of the continent in 1813–15, his valet did not wish to go. Instead, Faraday went as Davy’s scientific assistant, and was asked to act as Davy’s valet until a replacement could be found in Paris. Faraday was forced to fill the role of valet as well as assistant throughout the trip. Davy’s wife, Jane, refused to treat Faraday as an equal and treating him as a servant made Faraday so miserable that he considered returning to England alone and giving up science. The trip did, however, give him access to the scientific elite of Europe and exposed him to a host of interesting ideas from various conversations.

Faraday is best known for his work regarding electricity and magnetism though he was also influential in chemistry.  He was one of the most influential scientists in history. It was by his research on the magnetic field around a conductor carrying a direct current that Faraday established the basis for the concept of the electromagnetic field in physics. Faraday also established that magnetism could affect rays of light and that there was an underlying relationship between the two.   He also discovered the principle of electromagnetic induction, diamagnetism, and the laws of electrolysis. His inventions of electromagnetic rotary devices formed the foundation of electric motor technology, and it was largely due to his efforts that electricity became practical for use in technology.

So anyway….

Back to the billion dollar factory.  California, Georgia, Louisiana and Nevada are finalists for the factory.  Though Yueting is believed to be the primary force behind this new venture, the identities of the players in this startup are unknown.

 
Update 11/22/2019:
Faraday Future is now known for its money troubles, if it is known at all. Talented hires — from SpaceX, Tesla, Apple, and Ford — have mostly left the company to try to make their fortunes elsewhere. The $2 billion it spent to develop a luxury SUV never got off the drawing board. The vehicle is still not in production. The company’s problems are partly thanks to the company’s founder and former CEO Jia Yueting. He reportedly ran from China in 2017 to escape billions of dollars of debt, only to declare bankruptcy in the US.

I guess the moral of this story is that investors should always be aware and weary of shadowy companies attempting to make a big splash. At one point, it is said that some investors actually believed Faraday Future was a front for Apple and that Apple was about to get into the self-driving car market.